ALFRESCO Model outputs - Relative Vegetation Change

This file includes spatial representations of relative vegetation change produced through summarization of the ALFRESCO model outputs. These specific outputs are from the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) project, and are from the linear coupled version using CMIP3 climate inputs (IEM Generation 1).The IEM Generation 1 is driven by outputs from 2 AR4/CMIP3 climate models, and one emission scenario. The models include: CCCMA-CGCM3.1(T47) and MPI-ECHAM5/MPI-OM, under the A1B emission scenario.

Relative vegetation change was defined as the likelihood of a pixel to transition to a different dominant vegetation type. These parameters were assessed throughout the full spatial domain and 3 temporal domains of the simulations (1900-1999, 2000-2099, and 1900-2099) across all 200 model replicates. We calculated the proportion of years among all the simulations (200 replicate runs x number of years per simulation) that each individual pixel transitioned.

Relative Vegetation Change:
Counts the number of times a pixel transitions through all replicates and time and divides that value by the total number of layers (replicates * years)

A transition is defined as a pixel changing to a different dominant vegetation type. Transitions occur under several circumstances:

  • A pixel can burn and be reset to an early successional type.(ie. spruce pixel burning and then becoming deciduous).
  • A pixel becomes old enough to transition from an early successional type to a later successional type (ie. deciduous to spruce)
  • Graminoid tundra pixels that are subjected to warming conditions for long periods of time can transition to shrub tundra types.
  • Both graminoid and shrub tundra pixels can become populated by spruce stems and if the spruce basal area accumulation is high enough, it can transition to a spruce type.

There are also several example map layouts for specific Landscape Conservation Cooperatives in Alaska.

For background on ALFRESCO, please refer to:

Daniel H. Mann, T. Scott Rupp, Mark A. Olson, and Paul A. Duffy (YEAR) Is Alaska's Boreal Forest Now Crossing a Major Ecological Threshold? Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 2012 44 (3), 319-331

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Spatial resolution

1000 meters

Temporal extent

Start date: January 1901

End date: December 2100


The following people worked on producing this data set:

  • Alec Bennett
  • Michael Lindgren
  • Tom Kurkowski
Field Value
Maintainer Tom Kurkowski
Version 1.0
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credits ["Alec Bennett", "Michael Lindgren", "Tom Kurkowski"]
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guid 2626c819-3a71-48f4-93a4-3bb29fc9c791
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license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
metadata-date 2016-12-12T13:39:37
responsible-party [{"name": "Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP)", "roles": ["pointOfContact"]}]
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temporal-extent-begin 1901-01-01T00:00:00
temporal-extent-end 2100-12-31T00:00:00