ALFRESCO Model Outputs and Fire Management Scenarios across Alaska, 2014-2099, 1km

This set of files includes annual model outputs from ALFRESCO (ALaska FRame-based EcoSystem COde), a landscape scale fire and vegetation dynamics model. These specific outputs are the result of a Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) project, and consist of three comparative sets of runs to explore potential management treatment options. This includes historical Fire Management Options (FMOs) https://fire.ak.blm.gov/content/maps/aicc/Large%20Maps/Alaska_Fire_Management_Options.pdf as well as potential modifications to those options into the future, with fire spread sensitivity altered to reflect changes. Current suppression levels exist as Critical, Full, Modified, and Limited, in order of highest to lowest levels of suppression efforts. Treatment options for the purposes of this study are labeled below as TX0, TX1, and TX2.

TX0—Control Run: Current fire management options are continued into the future, with the exception being all Modified areas are switched to Limited. Otherwise, this scenario assumes minimal changes to current management practices.

TX1—More Full Suppression: Starting with the TX0 treatment, Full suppression areas were then extended by a 10km buffer and were applied to future simulations. This represents an overall increase in suppression efforts in the affected areas.

TX2—No Full Suppression: Starting with the TX0 treatment, Full and Modified suppression areas were re-assigned to Limited status for the purpose of future simulations. Critical areas remained unchanged. This represents an overall decrease in suppression efforts.

Climate models and emission scenarios:
For all GCMs, RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 were simulated. The following GCMs from CMIP5 were run as part of this study: - IPSL-CM5A-LR - GFDL-CM3 - GISS-E2-R - MRI-CGCM3 - NCAR-CCSM4

Variables include:

Veg: The dominant vegetation for this cell. Current values are: 0 = Not Modeled
1 = Tundra (otherwise not listed) 2 = Black Spruce
3 = White Spruce
4 = Deciduous Forest
5 = Shrub Tundra
6 = Graminoid Tundra
7 = Wetland Tundra
8 = Barren / Lichen / Moss
9 = Temperate Rainforest Age: This the age of the vegetation in each cell. An Age value of 0 means it transitioned in the previous year. Basal Area: The accumulation of basal area of white spruce in tundra cell, and is influenced by seed dispersal, growth of biomass, climate data, and other factors.
units = m2 / ha Burn Severity: This is a categorical burn severity level of the previous burn in the current cell, influenced by fire size and slope. For example, a burn severity value in a file with year 1971 in the file name means that the severity level given to that file occurred in the fire that occurred in year 1970. 0=No Burn
1=Low
2=Moderate
3=High w Low Surface Severity
4=High w/ High Surface Severity Fire Scar: These are the unique fire scars. Each cell has three values. Band 1 - Year of burn
Band 2 - Unique ID for the simulated fire for that simulation year Band 3 - Whether or not the cell was an ignition location for a fire. There will only be 1 ignition cell per fire per year. 0 = not ignition
1 = ignition point

For background on ALFRESCO, please refer to:

Is Alaska's Boreal Forest Now Crossing a Major Ecological Threshold? Daniel H. Mann, T. Scott Rupp, Mark A. Olson, and Paul A. Duffy Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 2012 44 (3), 319-331
http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1657/1938-4246-44.3.319

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Spatial resolution

1000 meters

Temporal extent

Start date: January 2014

End date: December 2099

Credits

The following people worked on producing this data set:

  • Alec Bennett
  • Michael Lindgren
  • Tom Kurkowski
  • Scott Rupp
  • This research is funded by the Joint Fire Science Program, Project 16-1-01-18
Field Value
Maintainer Nancy Fresco
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